Saturday, September 27, 2008

Ken Fisher - You Are Fired!!!!

Not too long ago, Fisher Investments claimed to be managing $45 billion in assets. But lately, as seen on Stockerblog, http://stockerblog.blogspot.com/2008/08/stockerblogcom-exclusive-interview-with.html, they claimed to be managing $30 billion in assets (probably even lower as of today). Let's do a little math.

During that time, Fisher's portfolios was down about 20%. That would bring $45 billion down to $36 billion. Now, the remanding $6 billion was moved away from Fisher. In another word, they fired Ken Fisher. A rough guess of a $1 million per client. So, that would give me a rough guess of 6,000 private clients that have fired Ken Fisher.

Friday, September 26, 2008

McCain - A Strategist? Not

In this 2008 Presidential race, a lot of talked about experience, winning war, judgment, etc., etc.. McCain argued that he has more experience and better judgment than Obama. Hmm! Let's take a closer look at what happened just the last 3 days.

On Wednesday, John McCain announced that he would suspense his campaign to return to Washington to "work on" the bailout plan, thus need to postpone the Presidential debate. Was that a good strategy or a poor one?

As a strategist, whether you are in a war, in a political campaign, or just playing chess, before you make your move, you need to assess the situation, assess the environment that you are getting into, and assess the odd of success. You need to think and act strategically.

But McCain decided that he would move the battle to Washington and bring attention to himself. However, the landscape in Washington was completely against McCain. First, both the Senate and the House leadership are controlled by Democrat, so Harry Reid and Nancy Palosi were in complete control of the negotiation and voting process, if it gets there far. Next, the President, with 4 months to go in his Presidency, is as lame duck as he can possibly get. As for the Republican leadership, they are ultra-conservatives and never were and are on McCain's side. Finally, the American people are clearly against this plan.

Whether or not you like the bailout plan, you have to agree the landscape in Washington was bad, especially for McCain. He had everything against him. Would a good strategist abandon your position and parachute yourself into a hostile and unfriendly territory?

But McCain did. He ended up looking foolish at the White House meeting, having nothing to offer, to say or the leadership ability to bring the other sides together. Then today, having to retract without a bailout plan, and run back to Mississippi with the tail between his legs to have debate.

Now, this is a Navel Academy trained military man, 73 years old with lots of experience, and pride himself having a strategy to win in Iraq. Yet, he couldn't even manage the situation in Washington, and fully capable of assessing the fast deteriorating and no-win situation for him in Washington. If he can't handle something that simple, how can he lead a nation in time of war when bullets and bombs fly and lives are at stake. Frankly, it is very surprising that a Naval Academy trained man would act so non-strategically. But then, this is John McCain, the man who graduated ranked 894 out of 899 in his class. Or maybe, John McCain slept through the lecture on strategy.

Cheer Up America. A Lesson From Your Failed President

As we end this Friday, there is no bailout plan, but I bet a plan will be coming in the coming days. As I said before, a debate is good and it doesn't matter which side you are on, having a debate forces both side to negotiate, listen to their constituencies, and hopefully come up with a better plan.

Like all politicians, what force them to act is the revoke of their constituencies and fear of losing in the next election. Whatever the reasons are, the American people spoke up, loudly. That is a great thing, especially given many people were quiet during the lead up to the Iraqi War and the Bush Administration pretty much have gotten whatever they wanted from the American people.

Maybe, just maybe. Bush did teach us something, remember Bush said this back on September 17, 2002.
There's an old saying in Tennessee -- I know it's in Texas, probably in Tennessee -- that says, fool me once, shame on -- shame on you. Fool me -- you can't get fooled again.

Source: http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2002/09/20020917-7.html
Yeah, right. Fool me once and you can't fool me again. American people finally learned that we were fooled before so we won't the politician fool us again. Cheer up America. The country has learned a great lesson and will be a better country because of it.

Tuesday, September 23, 2008

Encouraged that people are questioning the $700 billion bailout plan

I am encouraged and hopeful after seeing today's article from Peter S. Goodman of the New York Times, http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/23/business/23skeptics.html. Skepticism is good in the time of crisis that would force people to debate, to negotiate, and to look for alternatives.

More importantly, it gives the politicians in Congress more breathing room that they will not get blame for inaction. It gives them more negotiation power against the White House.

Now, I am even more encourage that the press is finally asking questions instead of following along like it did during the lead up to the Iraq War.

And the last test, do the American people learned its lesson and allow their elected official to debate the issue and not overwhelmed by political pressure. It is too early to say what the outcome will be. I hope that is one lesson that we better had learned as a nation.

$700 Billion Bailout Package is Bush's Parting Gifts for His Friends

The $700 billion bailout package being considered in Washington is yet another scam for the American people. It is George W. Bush's parting gift to his wealthy and crony friends. Let me explain why and how it will work.

The bailout plan, as proposed by our doing-nothing Security of the Treasury, Henry Paulson, called for no rules, not oversight, no questioning by Congress, on how the $700 billion dollar will be spent. He also said on Meet The Press over the weekend that it is impossible to assess the true value of these securities. Did you see the problem yet?

Once again, the Republicans have out-maneuvered the Democrat with 7-weeks to go before the November 4th election. They know the Democrat will not have the guts to stand-up against their plan, no matter how unreasonable it is. Plus, the economy does need this rescue plan, badly, unfortunately (will discuss the blame later). So, I think it is safe to say that the Congress will approve this plan, pretty much the way it is by this Friday.

The problem with this plan is clearly visible that like robing a bank in broad daylight with FBI protection. This is how it will work. The Treasury will package the mortgage-backed securities into large chunk (so you and I can't afford it and they don't want to deal with too many buyers). Let's say $100 million in original loan amount. Since Paulson said you can't assess its true value, what is to stop him from selling that $100 million securities to his crony buddies at any amount he wishes (remember, not rules and oversight). Let's say for $10 million.

Now, you and I and most average American people can't buy $10 million in asset, let alone we probably don't have the connections. Those who brought (with connections) can easily resell the securities to secondary buyers (without connections) with a good sizable profits.

Why? Eventually, the mortgages will be sold to some auction house which break it down and sell off the properties to another buyers at a discounted of 50%. Wait a minute, between what the Treasury will ask for and its final selling price when they get back on the market, there are many many millions and billions of dollars of profits to be made. The beneficiary are the Bush's and Republican cronies.

Unfortunately, these people are shameless.

Saturday, September 20, 2008

My Predictions from 3-years ago

In September 2005, I made the following prediction regarding the mortgage lending practice and its consequences. Let's see if I got it right.

-------------- Written on September 17, 2005 ------------------------

Who is behind these risky loans? They are Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. They are owned by the
federal government buying up these risky loans. So, these lenders have little risks because they sell these loans to the federal government. When the bubble bust, the government will be responsible for all these bad loans, much like what happened to the Saving and Loan collapsed in the 80's. So, the bank has little to lose except collecting fees. We will be paying for this mess.

But why would the government is willing taking such risks? Because this President is unable to create jobs or stimulate the economy. Think about it! The only segment of the economy that did well since he became President is the housing market. So, his job is to keep it going as long as possible.

Evidence? The Treasury Department has stopped issuing long-term bond since 2001, thus lessen the supply. On the other hand, the government is buying all kinds of loans, thus increasing the demand. As a result, increase the bond price and lower the long-term mortgate rate. Give Bush credit, so far, it has worked, but the economic theory will catch up with him sooner or later and the time bomb is ticking.

With 200 billion dollars for
Iraq and he just promised another 200 billion for Katrina, the bond market is getting worried (see link below). If you let someone, who already owed others lots of money, borrows your money, would you charge higher or lower interest rate. So the pressure on higher long-term rate is very high. Greenspan has raised short-term rates 7 times, but Bush's trick was able to keep the long-term rate low. It is like an earthquake fault building pressure. Sooner or later it will break. The higher the pressure, the bigger the earthquake.

Katrina is hurting the economy. Anything else can really break this open with much higher rate very quickly. Housing and
bond markets
are at risk. If you are considering buy bond, don't. Not now.

There is always a silver lining among all the bad news. For all the adults, we are not going to pay for this. Bush said he will not raise tax to pay for deficit. These troubles will be paid by all the kids. Thank you kids for taking care of the trouble we leave for you!

P.S.: Here are some reference material if you are interested.

Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac warned by Greenspan
http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050916/BUSINESS/509160321/1003/NEWS05

The "long bond" is back. What does it mean for investors?
https://flagship5.vanguard.com/VGApp/hnw/VanguardViewsArticlePublic?ArticleJSP=/freshness/News_and_Views/news_ALL_30yearbond_09062005_ALL.jsp

Treasury Bond Prices Fall Due to Worries http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20050916/ap_on_bi_ge/bonds_41

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

What we saw in the sub-prime problem in recent weeks, I was mostly right, especially regarding Fannie Mae and Feddie Mac. I was wrong, however, was the magnitude of the problem. I did not know at the time that Congress (led by Phil Gramm) had deregulated and let investment banker to get into these risky loans and could spread it throughout investment banks like Lehman Brothers and insurance companies like AIG.

I was wrong also believing George W. Bush would actually keep his promise to help his fellow Americans harmed by Hurricane Katrina. I guess not.

Beside these two points, I was pretty much right on.

Fisher Investments - Risking Seniors' Money?

As you can see in my earlier blogs, you can tell that I was a Fisher Investments client. Then I fired them. Their poor performance was certainly a major contributing factor, but another major reason was the questionable ethic and integrity of this company. Let me explain.

When I attended one of their client seminar, I noticed most of their clients are in their 50's, 60's, and 70's. They also confirmed that most clients are benchmarked against the MSCI World Index, which is more aggressive then S&P 500. Furthermore, one big reason of Fisher's recent poor performance is because they went heavy on energy and were wrong. In another word, they were more aggressive than the MSCI World Index.

That begs me to ask myself this question. Is it ethical to take retirees' money to invest in a super aggressive portfolio. I understand the clients have agreed to this selection. It is Investment 101 that investors need to be more conservative and cash preservation as they approach retirement age. Unfortunately, it didn't appear to be that way from what I witnessed.

In light of the recently dramatic downturn in the equity markets, can you imagine seniors in their 60's and 70's watching his portfolios dropping in value each day. I do understand Fisher's argument that their clients agreed to the selected benchmark. But, if this is an ethical company, it wouldn't target seniors' money and risk their hard earned assets in these risky investments

Thursday, September 18, 2008

Sarah Palin is no Dick Cheney and no Joe Biden either

A little over 7-years ago, on the morning of September 11, 2001, a commercial airliner crashed into the World Trade Center. About 700 miles away in Florida, the President George W. Bush was told of the incident but yet he continued his photo-opt in a second-grade class room. As he sat in front of the students, the second airliner crashed into the second World Trade Center tower, and his Chief of Staff whispered to him that "America is under attack". Yet, he continued to sit there motionless and had no idea what to do. Remember, at that moment, he did not know whether America is under attacked by car bomb, a ship, a 400 mph plane, or a 15,000 mph ICBM that can come from the enemy within minutes. He was clearly incapable to operate under pressure due to his lack of experience.

Back in Washington, the Vice President Dick Cheney was in control and managing the crisis from the White House Situation Room. He ordered to shutdown all air traffic and even gave order to shoot down any commercial airliners heading toward Washington. Trust me, I am not a Dick Cheney fan, yet on that day, he was "The Man" managing the crisis like a pro with his experience as a former Chief of Staff and former Secretary of Defense.

OK. I forgot. Let's go back to Florida. The President George W. Bush was still sitting in the second-grade classroom wondering what he should do next because no one was telling him what to do.

The Republicans like to say "September 11 changed everything". In some way, it did, but in another way, it did not. If McCain is elected President, it is inevitable that he would travel outside of Washington often. If America is attacked during one of those days, would a Vice President Sarah Palin able to do 1/10 of what Dick Cheney did on that day? I seriously doubt it.

If September 11 changed anything, it is the even more important role of the Vice President. She didn't have to wait for McCain to die so her to step in the spot light. In the post September 11 era, at any moment, the V.P. might have to step in and run the country. I am sorry Sarah, you are no Dick Cheney and you are no Joe Biden either.

Tuesday, September 16, 2008

Fisher Investments - Only the fees matter

When I first hired Fisher Investments, the promised exceptional customer services and assigned a Investment Counselor to me. He is a nice young man and following instruction given to him.

As my investments go bad to worse, I talked to my Investment Counselor. It was clear that he knowledge was limited and could only repeat the talking-point given to him. As I asked for more information, it would take him 2 weeks to write me written legal responses that are clearly intended to protect Fisher in case I suit them.

Finally, I have no choice but fired Fisher. Within the hour, they went to my brokerage accounts and deduct their fees, plus $2000 early termination fee. The only time that they acted quickly was to collect their fees. What does this tell you? This company has no ethic and lack of integrity. When I hired them, they said it is $1000 fee, but then it i $1000 per account.

I have lost so much money that I don't care to pay the extra $1000. I am so glad to have get rid of Ken Fisher and the gang. Ken Fisher maybe a good investor (although I haven't seen it) but the way that company is run, it is destinate to fail. My suggestion, don't go with the loser. That is my advise to you all.

Monday, September 15, 2008

What your vote means for children of Iraq

Last week, a friend and I were chatting about some random topics, including these two.

First of all, she is a right leaning Republican but disapproves of Bush's performance. So she will not vote for McCain. But she won't vote for Obama either because of his experience. She feels her vote would be irrelevant being in California.

Second, she talks about how she wants to donate money to help poor children of Africa and South America as seen on TV. That there are many children across the world that are poor and suffering.

"What about the children of Iraq?", I asked. I told her I understand and her noble intention to help children, but the simplest and most effective way to help children of Iraq is to vote for Obama so the American troops can leave. That single precious vote of yours can do so much for thousands of Iraqi children. Then, I sent her the following video

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GRA3QdvY9rQ

Tuesday, September 9, 2008

Fisher Investments - The One Biggest Mistake This Investor Makes

You probably have seen on TV or heard on radio about Fisher Investments' investor's guide, The Eight Biggest Mistakes Investors Make And How To Avoid Them. Let me tell you how to avoid The One Biggest Mistake This Investor Makes And That Was I Hired Fisher Investments.

Consider their results here. In 4 months, they managed to lose 19.7% of my assets. Well, you say "but the market was down". True. During the same time period, NASDAQ was down 10.4%, Dow was down 11.4%, S&P was down 10.9%, and even MSCI, which is Fisher's benchmark was down 16%. Clearly, it was not beating the marketing, but in fact, losing badly.

You say, "Well, 4 months is too short". That very well be true, but I only have so many 20% for them to lose. Considered that they were at par with S&P no too long ago, but the gap kept widening and widening to almost double. I have no choice but say "Ken Fisher, You are Fired!".

Then, amazingly, my Investment Counselor took action so quickly that I've never seen before. That was to collect their fees. Hmm!

I am not drawing any conclusion about Fisher Investments, but those are the facts. You decide!

Monday, September 8, 2008

The Consequence of your votes

Back in 2000, the U.S. economy was still booming. Yes, the dot-com was about to burst, but yet most of us were feeling pretty good whether you were investing in the stock market, or it just seems like a whole lot easier to find your next job with a good raise. It was so cool in the good old day.

At that time, most Americans, as I will say it, were fat-dumb-and-happy. Money and jobs were abundant, you and your friends were happily wealthy, you and your employer were making tons of money (except those dot-com), the federal government was running at a surplus. The country had so much fun and so much time on our hand that it decided to go impeach the President for sex or maybe simply we haven't impeached a President for over a hundred. So, that must be fun.

The country was so silly and so lazy that it voted (yes, there were cheating involved, but it shouldn't even be closed at all) for a man who had little to no experience, no accomplishments, and no intellectual capabilities, I don't mean in governing but in life altogether. Yet, his qualification was the man who people like to have a beer with. American people were too lazy to learn about their candidate and the political process, thus the biggest blunder of the history of the United States.

In 7+ year, an incapable President has brought the greatest, the wealthiest, and the most powerful country in the history to today's brink of bankruptcy and a country of irrelevant in the world. Wow, can you do that in 7 years. You bet. Now, do you think the President of the United States is important? Do you think every vote is important? Do you think your vote is important? Think again.

Imagine, fifty years or a hundred years from now, what will our children, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren think of us when they study the 2000 election. "Why were those people in 2000 so stupid to ever vote an idiot like George W. Bush?"

Good question, my grandchildren. We were fat-dumb-and-stupid. Remember, don't ever let that mistake happen again. Go learn about the political process and vote!